Since the transition to democracy in 1999, no elections in Nigeria have been as competitive and contentious as the 2015 elections. Anxieties over its fairness, rising cases of pre-election violence and the probability of the eruption of large scale post-election violence as witnessed in 2011 have been a source of worry, domestically and internationally. Yet, the issue of who emerges as winner: how and why between the two top contenders, President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ), the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP’s) flag bearer and Rtd. General Muhamadu Buhari of the opposition, All Progressives Congress (APC) has generated intense debate. This article is a contribution to the ongoing debate. It focuses on why rather than how a particular candidate will emerge. Based on an analysis of the follower and situation factors in leader emergence, the main argument is that although Gen. Buhari whose traits and competence are a match to the current socio-economic and security predicaments of Nigeria, the rapidly changing situations in the country and the constraints imposed by the nature of the society privilege President GEJ for victory in the March 28, 2015 presidential poll.