Why President Goodluck Jonathan may win Nigeria’s March 28, 2015 Presidential Election: An Analysis of the Follower and Situation Factors in Leader Emergence

March 2015

By Kialee Nyiayaana

Since the transition to democracy in 1999, no elections in Nigeria have been as competitive and contentious as the 2015 elections. Anxieties over its fairness, rising cases of pre-election violence and the probability of the eruption of large scale post-election violence as witnessed in 2011 have been a source of worry, domestically and internationally. Yet, the issue of who emerges as winner: how and why between the two top contenders, President Goodluck Ebele Jonathan (GEJ), the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP’s) flag bearer and Rtd. General Muhamadu Buhari of the opposition, All Progressives Congress (APC) has generated intense debate. This article is a contribution to the ongoing debate. It focuses on why rather than how a particular candidate will emerge. Based on an analysis of the follower and situation factors in leader emergence, the main argument is that although Gen. Buhari whose traits and competence are a match to the current socio-economic and security predicaments of Nigeria, the rapidly changing situations in the country and the constraints imposed by the nature of the society privilege President GEJ for victory in the March 28, 2015 presidential poll.

2015 General Elections and the Question of Leadership in Nigeria

March 2015

By Akinbode Fasakin.

In about a week, Nigerians will hit the ballot papers, voting for candidates of their choice in the 2015 General elections. Being the largest country in Africa and given Nigeria’s significance on the continent, Africa and the international community have put their focus on Nigeria with an attempt to decipher its ability to conduct a free, fair, credible and violent-free election after four previous attempts. Since elections are more an event, and an end rather than a means towards an end, one wonders what would be done differently at this time to enhance democratic process in Nigeria and achieve results that are more acceptable to at least the majority of the stakeholders and observers. This calls for scrutiny the roles and activities of some key actors in this electoral process. Among many others, these polls bring to the fore three critical actors including the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), responsible for the overall conduct of the elections; the political parties that have fielded candidates for various offices; and ordinary Nigerians, whose choice it is to decide those returning to elected public offices.

Why I support Buhari

March 2015

By Damilola Adegoke

Nigerians will soon have another opportunity to elect a leader who will lead the nation for the next four years, and a quick study of the extant political discussions in the country will reveal that the core of most debates now is the issue of the presidential elections. The nation is faced with two major choices of continuity or change; the ruling party will prefer the former while most progressive oppositions favour the latter. The events is going to be epochal because from all available analyses both by political watchers and informed critics, including myself, President Goodluck Jonathan will be the first Nigerian incumbent Head of State to be defeated. Because his luck seems to have run out; but as not too uncommon in our part of the world, the unexpected can happen.

The Crises of Postcoloniality in Africa


March 2015

Current ALC Fellow Moses Onyango, published "Postcolonial Politics in Kenya" as a chapter in the edited volume, The Crises of Postcoloniality in Africa, by Kenneth Omeje (ed.). This volume is published by Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA).

The Crises of Postcoloniality in Africa is an assemblage of transdisciplinary essays that offer a spirited reflection on the debate and phenomenon of postcoloniality in Africa, including the changing patterns and ramifications of problems, challenges and opportunities associated with it.

Contributors: Dauda Abubakar, John M. Kabia, Jeremy Keenan, Chris M. A. Kwaja, Pamela Machakanja, Macharia Munene, Tim Murithi, Martha Mutisi, Raphael Chijioke Njoku, Kenneth Omeje,Moses Onyango, Douglas A. Yates

Download the introduction here


Building peace should not just be left to Executive arm of the government

28th February 2015

By Godwin Murunga

Republished from Saturday Nation

 Last week, the African Leadership Centre jointly hosted a three-day conference at Wilton Park. Bringing together over 40 academics and policy practitioners from around the world, the conference, supported by Carnegie Corporation of New York, focused on peacebuilding in Africa.

There were participants from core institutions operating in the peacebuilding terrain in Africa including academics from universities, research centres and practitioners from the AU, East African Community and the UN. The discussion was rich, touching on conceptual questions around definition of peacebuilding to empirical ones on the transformations in the terrain and how these are challenging old approaches to peacebuilding. The conference discussed innovations in African peacebuilding and alternative perspectives evident in peacebuilding interventions in Africa.

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